THE mathematics and the statistics all point to one result when Cohuna takes on Central Murray Football Netball League leaders Kerang tomorrow.
Facts and figures are compelling, but the human element is also at play. Neighbourly rivalry and pride will also be on the line, despite promises of a lop-sided contest.
A season that promised so much has been a disappointment for the Kangas. They have managed just six wins and sit on the seventh rung.
The Blues, the reigning premiers, have lost just one game, have the best percentage in the league, and while not the highest scorers, they have the tightest defence.
Kerang showed that it is heading into finals form with a 54-point win over fifth placed Swan Hill, whereas the Kangas' finals chances faltered against the Swans a week earlier before the bye last weekend.
The Kangas need either the Swans or Tyntynder to slip up to gain a finals position.
Kerang's pacy midfield provides plenty of options for its potent forwards. Jarryd Pertzel continues to impress in front of goal, coach Travis Matheson made a welcome return last week and Troy Davis still delivers both height and footy smarts.
Harrison Keely has been a consistent performer for the Kangas and demonstrates his ability around the ground with accurate kicking for goal. Clayton Holmes adds valuable height and Dylan Friedberger is a consistent performer and will ensure that the Blues don't have everything going their way.
This is Cohuna's last game at home before a final-round clash at Woorinen.
Kerang will journey to Tyntynder for their last pre-finals hit-out.
Pride will be on the line for the Kangas, but expect the might of their opponent should be overwhelming.
Last time they met: Kerang 12.12 (84) def. Cohuna Kangas 4.3 (27) at Riverside Park.
Pride on the line for Raiders
IF Koondrook/Barham win by 500 points tomorrow, they could still play finals.
Jokes aside, this clash between the Magpies and Raiders will be played for nothing more than pride with the season over for both clubs.
However, after the Saints jumped a game clear of Lake Boga last week, Jayden Lonergan's men are now in the box seat to take the wooden spoon — something they would rather avoid.
Neil Bradley's squad won't take ladder positions for granted knowing they were taken right until the final siren in their last outing against the Magpies.
League leading goalkicker Dean Limbach only kicked two goals that day, and Lake Boga defence will do well to hold him to such an output again.
The Magpies were slaughtered in the clearances by Kerang a fortnight ago, and with the likes of Koondrook/Barham midfielders Marc O'Neill, Troy Rogers and Patrick Goble all featuring in the best players last round, the home side will have to step up.
Ricky Wild has been in fine touch for the hosts in recent weeks, as has coach Lonergan and Wesley Harrison.
The Magpies let a positive start against the Eagles go to waste last round, while it was the opposite when the two sides last met, as they handed the Raiders a four-goal head start.
Lake Boga need nothing short of a four-quarter performance if they're a shot at notching their second win of the season.
Last time they met: Koondrook Barham 10.9 (69) def. Lake Boga 9.9 (63) at Barham.